"No one can say for sure just how far Tiger will fall in the rankings in the coming months due to the complexity of the system."

Kevin Maguire takes an interesting look at the potential for Tiger's world ranking--for the first time out of the top ten--to take a free fall in the coming months now that his 2009 wins are about to start no longer counting.

To put this into perspective, over his first six events of 2009 -- which have already come off Woods' world ranking record -- Tiger's average finish was 7.6 through that year's Players Championship and included one victory at Bay Hill. During that span, he dropped from No. 2 in the world to No. 12.

Over the next four months, though, his world ranking points from 2009 will be nearly impossible to replace. From the 2009 Memorial in early June through the Tour Championship at the end of September, Woods claimed five victories in 10 events and nine top-10s overall for a staggering average finish of 2.8.

That stretch of golf might have been one of his best ever in a career that saw him win back-to-back majors on four separate occasions including the Tiger Slam of 2000-01.

No one can say for sure just how far Tiger will fall in the rankings in the coming months due to the complexity of the system. Outside the top 20? Top 30? A free fall is all within the realm of possibility now.

Comments

[kenoneputt]

Maguire overstates the complications of the system. And he overlooks the fact that those wins from 2009 have already been dramatically reduced in value compared to the results of more recent tournaments.

What's killing Tiger's rankings isn't losing the 2009 events, it's the slow decline of all his results combined with not playing at all, or playing poorly.

If he stays hurt, the minimum divisor of 40 is going to be the end of any high ranking.

[A3golfer]

Lance Armstrong. Sosa. Bonds. Woods.

[elf]

Min Div is already killing Tiger. He has 201 pts which if divided by 35 (number of events he's actually played in last 2 years) would give him an average of 5.78, which would rank him 5th. His play over the last year has been poor by Tiger's standards, but isn't as bad as one would think. A fact that is also born out by the fact that he's ranked 6th in Sagarin, which only looks at past years results.

Latest indictment of the ranking formula, Rory has played in more tournaments since his last win then Tiger. He has a ton of talent but right now he's overrated.

[BrianS]

My prediction is he will finish 2011 around 35-40 in the rankings. Assuming no more injury issues, at this point, he is likely to play the 3 majors, the Bridgestone, and ATT. Unless he wins one of those or alot of high finishes, he will be - just like last year - either out of or seriously scrambling to play any of the playoff events. if that scenario comes true, he might only have 6-8 events in all of 2011. With the very high 2009 out of the picture, his 2 year window might only have 30 events, with the minumum divisor of 40. Starting 2012, he will have dug himself in a big hole that only multiple W's will solve.

Btw, while I'm not a TW fan, the thing that is just incredible is: right now, Westwood is 1 with a 8.08 Avg. Tiger at end of 2009 was at 14.677, while at the end of 2006, he was #1 with an amazing 20.41. In both of those years, second place was comparable with Westy's current #1 point average. Hard to imagine we will ever see anything like that again.

[jimbob]

In every post about Tiger Woods, someone brings up performance enhancers. I'm just curious (really): do we have any proof for this? If so, what?

[elf]

@jimbob - no, just wild conjecture. Basically it comes down to, Tiger used a Dr linked to HGH (although all currently available evidence says he didn't use HGH on Tiger), Tiger has added muscle over the last 15 years, and mostly Tiger is a lying, cheating, scumbag, therefore he used PEDS. Woj over on espn did a good piece breaking the rumors down last week.

[Ky Laffoon's Ghost]

No proof, but there is this from Wikipedia, so beware. All of the links are to legitimate news organizations.

Anthony Galea (age 51) is a Canadian sports medicine specialist. He is a team physician with the Toronto Argonauts of the Canadian Football League.[1] He has also treated several clients in the United States, though he is not licensed to practice medicine in the United States.

On December 15, 2009 the New York Times and the Associated Press reported that Galea is the subject of a joint investigation by the Royal Canadian Mounted Police and the Federal Bureau of Investigation's Buffalo Field Office for allegedly providing elite athletes with performance enhancing drugs,[2] as well as criminal conspiracy.[3] The drugs were Actovegin and human growth hormone.[2] Galea was arrested in Toronto on October 15, 2009 and will face charges.[3]

Galea's confirmed clients include golfer Tiger Woods, Olympic medalists Dara Torres, Mark McCoy and Donovan Bailey,[2] NFL players Javon Walker, Santana Moss and Chris Simms,[2] and figure skater Patrick Chan.[4] Major League Baseball players Huston Street and John Patterson have also received treatment from Galea.[5] According to the New York Times, Galea visited Tiger Woods at his Orlando home at least four times in February and March 2009 to administer a special blood-spinning technique, and that Woods responded well to the treatment.[2]

On February 28, 2010, The New York Times reported that Galea treated New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez in March 2009 and that Rodriguez's rehabilitation from knee surgery was overseen by Dr. Mark Lindsay, an associate of Galea's.[6]

On May 18, 2010, Galea was formally accused of illegally distributing HGH in a criminal complaint filed in Buffalo, New York.[7] The same day, Mike Fish of ESPN reported that Galea criss-crossed the United States during the summer of 2009, treating 23 athletes with a variety of substances, including HGH.[8]


There is much more here than Tyler Hamilton telling stories to CBS News. Lie down dogs, get up with fleas. HGH may not be an illegal performance enhancing drug, but unfortunately for Tiger that will be a distinction without a difference if he is shown to have been treated with it by Dr. Galea. Or simply credibly accused of it. It will be interesting to see who Dr. Galea rolls over on to minimize the consequences of his actions. At the very least, practicing medicine without a license is a very serious matter.

[Waffle Girl]

Too far would never be enough.

[Slept at Holiday Inn Express Last Night!]

@jimbob

Check and compare facial photos from age 16 or 18 to new. Then Gooooogle/Wiki "Intramembranous Bone Growth".

Study hard and report back to us.

Need more proof? Try De Nile River.

[Jim]

Tiger always seemed pretty ethical in golf, he respected the game and the history and integrity (imo). So I never thought he would cheat using a performing enhanced drug etc. I still personally believe that and I truly hope I am right. LIke the guy or not, he played some amazing golf all those years and hit the ball amazing distances. I respect the game he played/plays. It seems to me the changes in distance etc is probably due to injuries and swing changes etc. I was out at Bel Air the other day and we were talking about where he hit his tee shot on 14 back in 1990 or so. It was UNREAL how long. I wonder if the bulk has actually hurt his distance as he isn't as flexible. I really hope he wasn't cheating using those drugs................................. I still believe he was above board on this.

[Eric]

Tiger's ranking is boosted by his Chevron performance, a tourney which should not be getting ranking points. Right now that's worth about 0.65 of his 5.03.

Yes, I know GMac is helped by the same thing.

[mel]

Since Geoff’s post has prompted the discussion of Tiger’s possible drug use, I would posit the following:

I think @jim’s comment has gone to the root of the issue.

It has been proven that steroids help heal injuries; help recover from extensive workouts and help build muscle. We also know Tiger has spent his entire life pursuing one goal – to win more majors than Jack. It seems to me the question should be “why wouldn’t he have used steroids?” and the only answer would be “because it would be wrong”.

So….do you believe Tiger would be honest at golf but dishonest about other things? Maybe, but remember – there is no such thing as an honest person who cheats sometimes.

[Jim]

Mel,

That is a great point. I personally believe if someone cheats at one thing they will cheat at everything so don't trust them. The fact that golf is really Tiger's ultimate being for existence and he has ultimate respect for the game (and I could be naive or overstating this) I give him a pass and hope he can draw the line when it comes to golf. I knew a guy who wouldn't cheat on his wife but when he became single he didn't have a problem cheating with someone else's wife. Pretty screwed up logic imo but he was principled about his marriage. I honestly hope TW didn't cheat, it will be like when I found out there was no Santa Claus. At least there would still be the greatness of Jack Nicklaus, Hogan, Snead etc. Great point though Mel.

[JJ]

Tiger was at his best before he bulked up. He was on a pace to beat Jack's record and really only needed to stay healthy and flexible. If he cheated using HGH or steroids to get bigger, in the end he only cheated himself. Like a lot of big guys, he is breaking down. You can make yourself stronger, but you are stuck with the same joints that your genetics gave you.

[bob c]

Jim;

There are more than a few of Tiger's fellow golfers who think he has little respect for the game of golf, starting with Tom Watson.

[Jim]

Bob C,

Very fair point and I would agree that his behaviour is appalling at times (slamming clubs, swearing, etc). I guess I may be overly influenced by his knowledge of history etc. Excellent point you make.

[V. Lind]

Some of the above posts raise some interesting questions. If Tiger has lost so much, how much would he be prepared to do to salvage the one thing he might think he had left?

Let's face it: honesty in his dealings is not his major biographical detail. Leaving out the wife, there's the teary, throat-lumping promise to be a better person and golfer and to keep on trying to improve by returning to his Buddhist roots and all that blarney at Sawgrass last year. In retrospect, worth about as much as his performance there this year.

He might test clean in the end, but this is someone who seems prepared to say anything, do anything, to suit himself and his wishes.

[Buffett]

There are numerous persons in my gym who are Tiger's age. I have stood right beside Tiger at a tournament. They have much better physiques than Tiger and they do not take drugs.You can embarrass yourself with sophomoric comments about steroids all you want, but there is no proof whatsoever that Tiger has taken them.

[thusgone]

@mel: that's not the only answer. another is "he might get caught," which would cast all of tiger's accomplishments on the golf course into doubt.

i have no idea whether he'd risk that or not (indeed, at this point i'm prepared to believe anything about the guy), but if tiger's entire existence is defined by one goal and one goal only, then that's at least one pretty good argument for why he might decline chemical enhancement.

[mel]

@thusgone

You're quite right - that is another answer. It's interesting to ponder it. Would Tiger be incredibly reckless with his personal reputation but extremely careful with his professional reputation? Maybe. Two years ago I would have said he would be very careful with all aspects of his life, but now....?

[elf]

Jeff Bagwell is one of the best first basemen of all time. He also was a big guy who played in the steroid era. At least in part becuase of the second sentence he received little hall of fame support last year, despite having never been linked in any way to steroids, or any trainer etc who was connected to them.

Jose Buatista is one of the great baseball storis of the past few years, having gone from utility player to one of the best hitters in the game. Yet any fans are convinced he's on steroids, despite there being no evidence of that fact.

These stories are a sign of the times, but to me it's incredibly sad. Accusing an athlete of cheating on their sport is a serious allegation, and one that I wish we would be more cautious about throwing around, without any evidence of abuse (and by evidence I mean documents linking them to PED use, or at least someone who should know claiming they used it).

[Jay Townsend]

Quote by elf
"Accusing an athlete of cheating on their sport is a serious allegation, and one that I wish we would be more cautious about throwing around, without any evidence of abuse (and by evidence I mean documents linking them to PED use, or at least someone who should know claiming they used it)."

So then, @elf, based on your quote above, how does Tiger's patient-Dr. relationship with Dr. Galea paint Tiger? Galea "treated" Tiger, Galea has been caught with HGH (presently a growth substance that is undetectable in present day testing), so, does not cast doubt on Tiger's innocence?

[jjshaka]

The Dr. Galea thing was always the skunk at the garden party for me simply because doctors in Florida could have preformed "Blood spinning". Why this guy?
Woods either knew of him or someone had to put his name in Woods' ear- and it probably wasn't because he was a fan of Canadian doctors.

[DaytonDad]

Maguire definitley overstates the complexity.

The biggest impact to Tiger's fall in the rankings has been just how long this slump has gone on. It would not take much success to shoot him back up the rankings and the fact that his 2009 play is coming off doesn't impact it as much as Mcguire's statistics would make you believe.

Here's some math to show you what could happen.

In the events that Tiger played between the Memorial and the end of the year in 2009, Tiger has a total of 60.91 World Ranking Points. If Tiger were to figure out some way to earn just what he has eraned so far in 2011, 42.7 WRP (Which we all agree is not very good, nor very tough for a player of his historical ability.) his official world ranking average would be somewhere around 3.66 (I've estimated the impact of the wieghting shift as the year moves later and I've probably overestimated it out of laziness.)

With an average of 3.66 Tiger would be around 25 in the world.

If he didn't earn another point the rest of this year and played in no more than 18 events he would likely have an average of 2.80 which would still keep him in the top 50 in the world.

If he managed to win a non-major and get an additional top 5 in a major his average could be around 5.78 which would have him sitting in the bottom half of the top 10.

the system is complicated but it's not that complicated. C'mon Kevin do a little homework or get some extra math tutoring.

[elf]

(I really was trying to be done with this thread, but since Jay asked me something directly)

Here's the deal with Galea, he's a really, well respected, innovative sports medicine injury specialist, he also happens to believe that HGH use should be legal. In addition to the HGH though, he was one of the big people behind the plasma replacement therapy that we know Tiger received, and he's treated a number of high profile athletes in the US. Athletes tend to all flock to the same Dr., what you really think there's no one else in the country besides Dr. Andrews who can do Tommy John Surgery?

Tiger wanted to try this therapy, Galea is well known for it, and has used the treatment on a ton of other athletes it's really not that surprising that they'd end up working together.

And Jay you should check out the court records on Galea's patients (Elling over on CBS even ran a story on it when they came out). All of the athletes were of course anonymous, (given a letter by the govt) but there's only one in Orlando. And the medical treatments they received were listed. For the Orlando patient it was only PRP. Now, could the books be cooked? Yeah, of course. But, I think the standard of proof should be some evidence actually linking that person to PED's (rather then a Dr to PEDs) before we go about throwing around accusations.

Also seriously if Tiger got HGH from Galea, it was the worst HGH in the history of mankind, since all that happened is he had a tendon that bugged him all year (which HGH would not have caused).

[Jay Townsend]

Quote by elf:
Here's the deal with Galea, he's a really, well respected, innovative sports medicine injury specialist, he also happens to believe that HGH use should be legal.

@elf, let me clue you into one very important fact that I DO know: HGH, in spite of what Dr. Galea might think or want, IS NOT LEGAL!

And being it is NOT LEGAL, do you really think treatments of an illegal nature would be kept in his records?

PLEASE, stop being so pathetically blinded by whatever it is you are in denial about. (only Nixon kept incriminating evidence, and most have learned from his mistake)

[elf]

Look if people want to continue to post in every thread about Tiger that he must have used PED's and that's why he can't play anymore, whatever have at it. I was merely trying to inject some facts, science, logic into discussion, and I really do hate the constant suspicions of steroid use that happen nowadays. I think we should require a higher burden of logic/proof. Honestly, you can do this sort of thing with nearly any player for instance: Mickelson is more muscular, and hits it further now then he did when he was 35, and has managed to avoid any nagging type injuries, pulls or sprains, despite increasing his work outs.

Anyways so I'm out in terms of posting on this topic, people will continue to believe whatever they want anyways, but it does make discussions a lot more boring when every post on Tiger turns into a he used PED's thing (and yes I know I'm part of the problem, hence why I'm stopping).

[Brad Hamilton]

Buffett,

Sure just like there's no proof Barry Bonds juiced or Lance Armstrong or Marian Jones......Tiger did the "roids for two reasons: injury recovery and he wanted to look good for the "ladies"...its mentioned by a few of them how much he was into his body.

And besides, what risk was there in getting caught by tests when there were' t any administered till recently by the PGA. He could of done it without violating any rules early in his career.

[elf]

@Jay Townsend Duh it's not legal (never said it was), some of the records though do indicate some patients who received HGH. BTW in the Balco case there were also records indicating who got what and schedules (using code names of course), most Dr's keep that kind of stuff (not saying its smart). Seriously, go read the trial evidence, before you start accusing me of being pathetically blind or naive or whatever. It's possible any athlete took it, I'm saying using Dr. Galea as a Dr, in and of itself doesn't constitute evidence that he did, especially when all available evidence currently contradicts the claim (including interviews given by Haney, put whatever stock in them you want).

Honestly, if Tiger used PED's of any form, I can nearly guarantee it'll come out, through records or with someone diming on him, look at what's currently happening with Armstrong. That hasn't happened yet

[Mulligan]

The King is dead.
Long live the King.

[Buffett]

Who is the King?

[Jay Townsend]

@elf

I am not accusing anyone of anything, just got to the point of your first post and asked a question :)

[elf]

Fair enough, I've never really gotten the whole why didn't he just use a Florida Dr thing? Maybe it's because I'm aware of Galea's reputation outside of the HGH issue, plus athletes tend to flock to the same Dr's. They rarely use the local Dr. it would've surprised me more if he had.

[elf]

@Buffet, nobody is the king the plebes have taken over! :)

[Ky Laffoon's Ghost]

@elf: This has been covered this before, comprehensively. As Dr. Galea's legal adventure continues we'll see more of it. Unless he just takes a plea bargain and goes away.

http://www.geoffshackelford.com/homepage/2010/5/18/why-dr-galea-why.html

http://www.geoffshackelford.com/homepage/2010/3/22/yet-they-will-not-be-so-nonchalantly-swatted-away-when-it-co.html#comment7839560

http://www.geoffshackelford.com/homepage/2009/12/16/you-know-whats-really-recklessly-irresponsible-dealing-with.html#comment6606937

http://www.geoffshackelford.com/homepage/2010/4/1/im-much-more-concerned-about-tigers-being-treated-by-the-tor.html#comment7937258

[Buffett]

Brad, your logic might work in Iran, but not here.

[Brad Hamilton]

Buffet, you should be lance Armstrong's PR flack.