Odds, Picks And Who Will Get The Best Draw For The 2019 Open At Portrush

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There is only so much we know about players and their feelings for (or against) Royal Portrush. And we don’t know whose wife yelled at them, whose caddie’s bad breath is wearing thin and whose chef just isn’t bringing it this week.

But we do have a weather forecast and so far it’s been pretty accurate this week. I tweeted the current Thursday/Friday weather forecast on Wednesday:

Given the tee times, the most significant chance for a disruptive wind event appears to be midday Thursday, potentially throwing a wrench in enthusiasm you might have for mid-morning and midday tee times by for names like Fowler, Matsuyama, McIlroy, Woodland, Casey, Molinari, DeChambeau and Scott.

You can monitor any and all winner odds here at OddsChecker.com.

There are also handy links her to other opportunities, such as a first round leader (a fun longshot option I enjoy), low English player, etc…

My top ten to watch heading into the event for Golfweek’s print edition got an update, with on Jon Rahm slid in over Tommy Fleetwood. Adam Scott might have made it too based on his recent major play and deep dive into Portrush, but I reserved him for…

Golfweek staff picks.

Dan Kilbridge looks at some interesting bets and prices, including some head-to-head options.

Golf.com’s picks and reasoning behind them.

Sleeper picks are a big part of this round up by the Golf team on site.

On that note, I’m off to William Hill to do my part for the local economy. My tastes have moved from betting each/way on the winner pre-tournament given the silly odds. Instead, first round leaders, some longshots and missed-cut bets based on weather will have me handing over some notes. Good luck!

Justin Rose Questions Playing Majors So Close Together

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I penned this explanation—delivered with his typical gentle forthrightness—here for Golfweek. 

I will say, in the FedExCup’s defense (which Rose rightfully says should not be dictating the major schedule)—that the real juggernaut is not necessarily the “playoffs” but the NFL and college football season golf is working around. 

Either way, however, the numbers are suggesting top players have played less in the calendar year portion due to the tighter schedule and that can’t make sponsors or television happy.

Video: Royal Portrush's Seventeeth And Eighteenth Holes

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And finally, the finishing holes which figure to provide more interest than most Open rota conclusions. At least, based on architecture and setup.

The 408-yard 17th plays from an elevated tee to a crowned landing area before the fairway falls down to the green abutted by the 13th green. With any helping wind, the firm ground and and open green front, there will be a temptation to drive it.

At 345 yards of the tee a new bunker has been added by Martin Ebert to add some zest to the decision should the conditions allow.

The finishing hole is a beautiful piece of work and where the influence of H.S. Colt is felt more than most links finishers, with classic strategy incorporated and a sense that features were used with an intelligent purpose in mind. A new tee to offset driving distances changes the angle a bit, with players driving toward an out of bounds line detailed here for Golfweek that could prove problematic (though historically consistent with the 1951 Open).

The players now drive directly out the out of bounds line. A sizeable carry is required to actually cross the stakes line, but downwind it’s very doable. To get a good look at the 42-pace deep green, players will want to see it and can only do so from the left side of the fairway.

Lay up right and the view is poor or completely obstructed. At 474 yards it’s a beast into the wind, but a case could be made that down wind breezes from the north make it play almost as tough.

As for the OB, it almost assuredly takes away aggressiveness unless a left-to-right wind is blowing. Expect to see plenty of three-woods here and irons with any helping wind. In other words, the risk/reward qualities may be nullified.

One final note: Luke Kerr-Dineen points out for Golf.com how we might see some intentional plays off of the grandstands. Grandstanding!

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"The Open Championship at Portrush may be the only thing Northern Ireland can agree on"

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Golfweek’s Eamon Lynch helps the rest of us better understand Ireland, Nortrhern Ireland and The Troubles as we approach the first Open here since 1951.

Even in the darkest of days — and there were many, still etched on the faces of older spectators at Royal Portrush this week — the perception distorted the reality. For much of my childhood, the annual death toll from the conflict hovered around 100, a figure described with callous indifference by one British government official as “an acceptable level of violence.”

One hundred souls. That’s about two days worth of murders in the United States. The threat of violence was more pervasive than the violence itself, metastasizing into every aspect of everyday life. Even today, two decades after the Good Friday Agreement, Northern Ireland retains a slightly sinister air, its people still able to decipher clues about the beliefs of strangers from language or utterances that seem meaningless to the untrained ear.

Internal Out Of Bounds Could Make For A Controversial Finish At Portrush

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The Max Faulkner story from 1951 is usually highlighted by his play on the 16th—now the 18th—and the miraculous he played from up against a barbed wire boundary fence. That is now gone and a small, grassy berm sits in its place with OB stakes atop.

I’m a tad conflicted about this as you’ll see in this Golfweek column explaining the rationale and history behind the setup.

Tiger's First Look At Royal Portrush: Angles, Complicated, Decisions

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Words that are music to any golf architect’s ear and likely to mean Tiger Woods will be a happy camper if he’s forced to push so many buttons.

Having walked a few holes with his practice pairing alongside Patrick Reed, Tiger was understandably jet-weary from an overnight flight and easing into the round Sunday, but by day’s end appeared to be striking the ball as well as he has lately, with only a couple of quack push-shots. But Tiger Woods otherwise seemed ready and willing to see what he could learn in three days about Royal Portrush, as Steve DiMeglio reports for Golfweek.

Tiger’s attitude toward the course is a good starting place:

“A lot of movement,” Woods said of his initial reaction of the course hard by the North Atlantic in the northern-most tip of the country. “A lot of decisions off the tees, with all the angles. Now, with the wind switching coming out of the south in the future, a lot of these shots we hit today are useless. So we’re trying to figure out what lines to take on and what lines not to take on. And these green complexes are so complicated, you have to miss in the right spot.”

Phil Hits Control-Alt-Delete With Fasting Diet, Loses 15 Lbs For The Open

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Putting the “funny Phireside” chats on hold, going on a retreat and living off water and a special coffee blend—really all the same things Willie Park Jr. did before the 1878 Open—Phil Mickelson has posted this missive from the hills above Royal Portrush. One thing he did not do: get a haircut.


Video: Royal Portrush's Fifteenth And Sixteenth Holes

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The par-4 15th begins a home stretch that could play very different from day to day all depending on wind. Downwind, the 15th and 17th will play very short, but into the breeze those two will become more challenging while the 16th and 18th might be neutral for the world’s best.

The flyover of the 418-yard 15th does not capture the difficulty of land forms here or the exposure of the green, but does give you an idea that another right-to-left shaped tee shot seems in order.

Calamity in all its glory, at 236 yards, is a stunning-looking par-3 though I don’t know how much the 75-foot falloff will come into play for the world’s best golfers.

Adam Scott Has Already Spent Six Days At Royal Portrush: "It’s so penal off the tee, no matter what you hit"

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One player who immediately comes to mind reading the Forecaddie’s first look assessment of Royal Portrush is Adam Scott.

Ballstrikers course, mostly quiet greens and a real examination of all shot shapes. Throw in how few players know the course and his six-day deep dive into the 2019 Open venue makes him a very attractive 30-1 shot.

From Doug Ferguson’s AP story, that includes Darren Clarke’s (slightly predictable) suggestion for Scott to sample local whiskey.

“I was a bit surprised, my first look, at how demanding a golf course it is,” Scott said. “Sometimes on a links you can get away with wide shots. Here, you don’t. It’s so penal off the tee, no matter what you hit. If you start spraying it, there’s going to be reloading a lot. If the wind doesn’t blow, there will be less of that. It is a very, very strong golf course.”

Rory Happy With Scottish Open Play, Heads To Portrush The Betting Favorite

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The punters have Rory McIlroy at 8-1 or so, the only single-digit price on the current OddsChecker board totaling all of the UK betting houses.

And while he wasn’t ashamed of his 67-67-68-69, the pushover that Renaissance Club proved wasn’t quite the exacting links test some might have wanted. Though McIlroy says he just wanted “a scorecard in his hand” and while it was unsaid, he surely wanted to arrive at Portrush late enough to cut down on the amount of “Rory” screams he will hear all week (with the best intent of course).

From Alistair Tait’s Golfweek report:

“All I wanted to do was get a scorecard in my hand,” McIlroy said. “Doesn’t matter if the winning score is 20 under or 10 under or whatever. I just wanted to play four rounds of competitive golf. I’m going to do that this week and at least have a better idea of where my game is at heading into next week, instead of having a few weeks off and trying to figure it out once I get there.

Video: Royal Portrush's Thirteenth And Fourteenth Holes

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There isn’t much mystery to the 191-yard par-3 13th at Royal Portrush (view flyover here). It’s the most heavily-bunkered green here and features some nice wings for hole locations—at least they are nice if you aren’t trying to play to them in The Open.

The 470-yard 14th plays back toward the sea, with a fairway filled with bumps and pits to make it one of the most challenging tee shots on the course. Another elevated green awaits, with a steep fall-off left and a slight swale right.

Portrush's 1951 Open Championship: So Much To Savor In Reading About Max Faulkner's Win

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Carve out a few minutes to read John Fischer’s look back at Max Faulkner and the 1951 Open win at Royal Portrush. Fischer covers so much of note about a fascinating character from the past who was rightlyfully remembered as an eccentric who lived an extraordinary existence.

Here is just one of many tidbits of note:

Faulkner had a major weakness: putting. His idol, Locke, seemed to make every putt, but Faulkner missed too many, and he continually changed putters, sometimes even making his own. His most unusual putter had a shaft made from a billiard cue and a head made from a piece of driftwood that Faulkner had found on the beach. He got good press about the odd putter, but it wasn’t that often in his bag.

Here is the official Open site’s write-up of the ‘51 event where hometown man Fred Daly was the favorite son.

There is also this cartoon—yes—recreating the greatest shot final round playing partner Frank Stranahan had ever seen, documented in Fisher’s piece.

Peter Alliss on Faulkner and the 1951 Open. He’s a bit more frail and yet as elegant as ever.

And the old film:

Video: Royal Portrush's Eleventh And Twelfth Holes

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The 475-yard par-4 11th—viewable in this flyover by clicking on the link—poses the most daunting drive if the wind is up. A left-to-right shaped shot is called for but some of the trickiest dunes and vegetation await the wayward. Another green complex with only one bunker and a fall-off to the side.

The hole is named for the club’s first professional.

The par-5 12th plays straight away with pits off the tee to easily catch a slight miss. The par-5 narrows gradually as it plays through dunes and finishes at a small green fronted by a deep swale and fall-offs on all sides. Dhu Varren is the local railway station.


Video: Royal Portrush's Ninth and Tenth Holes

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The ninth at Royal Portrush will be a brute with any wind at all, as a right-to-left tee shot is needed with firm ground to offset the ground tilt and small bunkers awaiting drives not turned over. But turn it over too much and the trouble left appears to be of the pitch-out variety.

Playing through a beautiful dunescape, the 432-yard par-4 finishes with an uphill second shot to a deep, bunkerless green with a fall-off to the right, sideboard left. With two bunkers well short of the green, judging distance may be tricky here.

After a distinctive right-to-left bend to the previous par-4’s, the 10th turns things around and asks for a left-to-right shot shape to shorten its 456 yards. Maybe.

Playing through the Himalaya-like dunescape for which the 10th is named, the optimum view of this long, slender green set amidst dunes comes from the left side of the fairway, otherwise the sightline into the green is likely to be obstructed.