Flogging: It Works For Tiger

On Mike Vitti's PGATour.com ShotLink blog (scroll down to find the post), he breaks down an interesting new "percentage-of-distance-covered-by" stat that validates the flogging approach, at least for Tiger Woods.

So, for example, if a player hits a 300-yard drive on a hole measuring 450 yards the percentage of drive covered is 300 yards/450 yards or 66.7 percent. The 2006 TOUR average for this statistic is 61.7 percent for all driving holes. On par 4s the percentage rises to 65.6 percent, while on par 5s it drops to 52.1 percent.

He brings the stat up to look at Tiger possibly using driver less often: 

Judging by his results at Royal Liverpool, it appears that Woods should do whatever he can to find the fairway, and not worry about distance. However using the distance covered percentage on par 4s as the counter to this argument, accuracy in lieu of distance may not be Woods' best option. Consider the following from par-4 statistics by Tiger Woods:

^{2005-2006 Tiger Woods Par-4 Scoring
Drive Covers at least 67% of Hole Yardage   Drive Less than 67% of Yardage
Total Drives                 465                                                 341
Under Par                    130 (28.0%)                                     47 (13.8%)
Over Par                      45 (9.7%)                                        62 (18.2%)}

In 2005-2006, Woods had 465 drives on par 4s where he covered at least 67 percent of the distance of the hole from off the tee. In these instances, he was able to make birdie or better 28 percent of the time. On the drives where Woods did not reach this mark, he only made birdie or better 18.2 percent of the time, and he also had a higher rate of over-par scores in these situations.

Then he looks at drives landing in fairway v. rough.

<sup>2005-2006 Tiger Woods Par-4 Scoring
Drive Covering at least 67%, Out of the Fairway  Drive Less than 67%, In Fairway
Total Drives                         211                                               193
Under Par                            41(19.4%)                                      36(18.7%)
Over Par                             30 (14.2%)                                     16 (8.3%)

2005-2006 Tiger Woods Par-4 Scoring
Drive Covering at least 67%, In the Fairway   Drive Less than 67%, Out of Fairway
Total Drives                           254                                               148
Under Par                              89 (35.0%)                                     11 (7.4%)
Over Par                                15 (5.9%)                                       46 (31.1%)</sup>

The conclusion:

Out of the rough on longer drives Woods has about as good a chance of making birdie as he does from the fairway on shorter ones, and more importantly, if he misses the fairway on a shorter drive he has a much greater chance of making bogey. If you are thinking that his accuracy with the shorter club should be greater than with the longer one, look at the numbers again. Woods' accuracy on drives that travel at least 67 percent of the fairway is around 55 percent while the accuracy rate for drives less than 67 percent is only around 43 percent. So why bring a greater risk of bogey into play if you can avoid it?

So Vitti concludes:

Back to the original argument, on whether Woods should change his strategy, I would say yes - every time he plays Royal Liverpool or a course that dictates that would be the best way to win. Otherwise, I think with 49 career victories, including 11 majors, Woods already knows what approach is best for him. 

"We're trying not to do perfect anymore"

Thanks to reader Nick for this Seth Soffian story in the News Press, where Jack Nicklaus is teetering on the edge of Phil status:

"I watch Tiger a lot, obviously," Nicklaus said. "His golf swing that week was right on the plane it should have been. He gets himself off of plane very easily, particularly when his swing gets longer. Then he can hit it anywhere.

"He's such a great iron player because he's so much under control," said Nicklaus, beginning the demonstration of various club positions on the backswing.

"His swing is not very long with his irons. He keeps it pretty much in here. Once he gets the driver back in here, that's when he gets off plane, and then he can bring it under this way or around this way."

And...

"He was on plane the whole time with the driver," said Nicklaus, throwing one last variable into the mix to consider for the year's final major championship.

"Obviously, (Hank) Haney is doing something with him that (Tiger) feels confidence with, because he's getting great confidence with his other clubs," Nicklaus said of Woods' swing coach.

"It could be he's got a bad driver, too. I don't know. If you're hitting everything else good and you're hitting your driver bad, it may be your driver, not him. I don't know."

He also had this to say about his design work, which Nick was possibly a reflection on his collaboration with Tom Doak:

Q: We heard you said the course was "too perfect."

A: Sometimes, yeah. We're trying not to do perfect anymore. We used to work really hard to get everything absolutely dead perfect. I don't think nature's too perfect. We try to bust up a few things to make them look a little irregular at times. Perfect is a description I drove my guys crazy with for about 20 years.

Tiger Wishes They Played Courses Like Medinah All The Time

Ed Sherman shares the nitty gritty on Tiger's test drive around Medinah. His caddie:

 "He said about six or seven times, `I wish we played courses like this all the time,'" Conklin said.

How far into his PGA press conference before we get the dreaded "it's all right in front of you" line? 

Tiger's Post Final Round Q&A

After the round, a few good questions and answers:

Q. Can you talk about the genesis of your strategy to not hit driver this week? You had said that you didn't know much about this course. Did you read about it on the flight over?

TIGER WOODS: Nope.

Q. It was just when you first got here. Was there a moment when it happened?

TIGER WOODS: No. As I was playing the golf course, I would hit a couple of drives, and the driver would go 350, 370 yards. How can you control that out here? You can't control that. The fairways become they're hard enough to hit as it is, and you add driver and they go that far, now how hard is it to hit? So I just felt in the end if you stayed out of the bunkers this entire week and had just a decent week on the greens, I felt that I would be in contention on the back nine.

And I hit the ball well the entire week and I felt like I had wonderful touch on the greens, except for the last nine holes yesterday. Other than that, I felt that my strategy was sound. It was going to keep me out of trouble.

Guys who were trying to hit the ball over the bunkers, they're going to have shorter clubs on the greens, no doubt about that, but a lot of these flags you can't attack with wedges. On 4, I had I'm aiming 30 feet left of the hole, and I couldn't keep it on the greens. That's the nature of the golf course and the way it was playing this week.

I felt the conservative approach was the way to go. And it lent itself to that this week, especially with four par 5s. And you figure if you just handle the par 5s, that's 16 under par right there. You sprinkle in a few more here and there around the golf course and you're looking pretty good.

Q. Has Hoylake stood the test of time and should The Open come back here, and if so, why?

TIGER WOODS: I think it's a fantastic test. With the golf course being this fast, it lent itself to just amazing creativity. Granted, if you would have had easier pins I'm sure it would have gone lower. These are the most difficult pins I've ever seen at an Open Championship. And a couple of times you feel like if you hit a putt too hard you'll actually putt it right off the green, and you never have that feeling at an Open. But this week it certainly was the case.

And I think because the yardage played short, in some cases, because it was so fast, you hit 3 wood, driver, hitting it 380 yards down there, you're going to have a lot of short irons in there. The only defense they had was pin locations and hard, dry conditions. And we couldn't really go all that low.

Q. Should it come back here?

TIGER WOODS: Yes.

And here he talks about controlling spin into the greens:

Q. Your strategy off the tee and having to hit all the long irons sort of takes for granted the fact that you have to be hitting your long irons really well. How well were you hitting them? How tough might it have been if you weren't, especially your approaches?

TIGER WOODS: As far as my control, probably one of the best ball striking weeks I've ever had, as far as control. That's shaping the ball, moving my traj and different heights and really controlling my spin going into the greens. It wasn't getting away from me. Yeah, probably one of the best ball striking weeks I've ever had.

If I wasn't hitting it well, as you alluded to, it would have been pretty difficult around here. This golf course you had to really control your ball in order to have a chance. And I was able to do that the entire week.

Also you have to remember that if you're with the flags the way we they were, you're going to have a bunch of 40 and 50 footers, and my pace was good all week. A bunch of tap ins, my pace was really, I felt, sound all week, especially today when I really needed it. I had a lot of kick ins and putts that I thought I made just kind of skirt off on the edge.

Tiger's Post 3rd Round Q&A

Bold question here from a scribbler considering he has a one shot lead and was 3 made short putts from having another "flawless" round:

Q. How risky is this approach with no drivers in terms of having to hit so many long irons? If somebody should start to push ahead in front of you, would you have to abandon that and start trying to whack it over those bunkers?

TIGER WOODS: Well, I don't see any reason why, unless I absolutely had to. The problem is if you hit the ball over the top and you put the ball in that wispy stuff, you can't stop the ball near the flag. You're better off you can control your spin with 7 irons and 8 irons better than you can a sand wedge out of that stuff, because you just can't control your spin. And with these pins you've got to be precise.

It's gotten me to the lead so far. Hopefully tomorrow I can putt better. If I putted normally and took away my three putts, I shot 4 under par today.

And someone's working on a great-courses-bring-out-great-leaderboards story:

Q. There's a terrific leaderboard, a lot of different styles, and I'm just wondering why? Why here? Why now? Your thoughts on the golf course and on your competitors.

TIGER WOODS: Well, I think it's a very fair golf course. It's extremely fast. You can play it so many different ways and it lends itself to a bunch of different styles, but ultimately it's fair. It's not tricked up at all. Quality golf shots hit around this golf course, you're going to give yourself plenty of opportunities. And when you've got four par 5s where you can hit normal drives in play you're going to have irons to, I think generally when that happens you're going to see the leaderboard bunch up.

Faldo's Post Opening 36 Q&A...

Yields all sorts of fun stuff.

Q. Nick, you haven't been playing much, you've done a lot of TV work, why would you put yourself under this pressure to come here and try and play on a golf course so difficult?

NICK FALDO: I wasn't intending to put myself under that much pressure. I was hoping to get a nice quiet draw, maybe with Mr. Watson or maybe Mr. Ballesteros. Maybe that's what the crowd would have liked. Instead I get Tiger and get thrown into the deep end.

And I only had a week's practice and that was a tough experience. I didn't enjoy that, because you're playing under pressure and you're just not prepared for it. I used to beat balls and hit millions of balls to boost my confidence. I've only hit hundreds in the last week. Obviously my game is very rusty and that was hard work so I don't think I'll do that again to myself. If I'm going to play again I need a good couple of weeks practice and I've got to get some confidence in my putting before I get back on the golf course again.

Q. Are you going to put your TV hat on now and see if anybody can beat Tiger this weekend?

NICK FALDO: Not really. He's got a great game plan, playing so many irons. If he keeps it totally in play and doesn't scare himself missing a fairway or getting a bad lie then anything can happen. But his touch is so good, his competitive ability is the best, I would predict that if the weather stays decent, he will get to 20 under and good luck. How are they going to beat him with that score?

I've only had a week's practice and then I was thrown in with Tiger and that's not what I was looking for this week. Watson and Ballesteros would have been a good draw, that's maybe what the crowd were looking for, 11 Open Championships between us. But I didn't get that, I was thrown in the deep end and I've only done a little work on my game and I need to practice more and I need to get a putting stroke if I'm going to play again. So I'm not too keen on venturing onto the golf course for a while.

But it's great to be at close quarters with Tiger. I can see what's going on. I should be able to tell ABC viewers up close and personal this weekend.

Q. You didn't like what was written about you and Tiger before the tournament?

NICK FALDO: No, it was the usual, complete mountain out of a molehill. Fortunately I don't read it, which is even better tactics.

Q. Did somebody tell you about it then?

NICK FALDO: A pigeon flew past and crapped on me, and I guess that was the message. I knew something was coming.

This is very interesting...

Q. Has your opinion changed on his golf swing and some of the technical aspects of his game?

NICK FALDO: There are some shots actually that he is uncomfortable on. I can see some technical things in his swing, yeah. But he gets by because he is so physically strong and so mentally determined and such a great competitor that, yeah, there are some technical things in his swing that if he were honest he'd say he'd love to iron out.

He's got a good plan. If he can keep hitting those irons, coming from the fairway he'll be just short of impossible to beat.

Q. Another player thought he said the swing changes he was working on with Hank were designed to help him control the trajectory, especially on his irons, and if you watch him he's clearly doing that and is able to hit more and varied shots?

NICK FALDO: The thing now is that the ball doesn't curve as much and you have to work on the swing factor. The guys will develop different follow throughs to develop different spins and that's what you need. Some shots it will stop and some that will run. You have to do that in your swing to make that happen. That obviously affects ball flight as well.

Q. Does the fact that Tiger has only hit one driver in two rounds sort of take something away from the first two days?

NICK FALDO: It doesn't sound great in the stats, does it? Obviously he's long, that does help. And even yesterday's drive on 16 was the wrong club. He should have hit 3 wood. It should have been 0 0 for two days. It just shows you it's all down to the burnt golf course. It is short.

Tiger's Press Conference

Apologies if this is old news, but if you didn't see his comments, there are some interesting things said here that seemingly only could come from either Tiger or Ogilvy's minds.

Q. What were your memories about your dad and this Championship and links golf?

TIGER WOODS: He absolutely loved it when I played at Carnoustie, because it was one of the very few times that he thought I was able to use my imagination and create shots, because in the States we don't get a chance to do that very often because it's always soft and the balls are plugging. On links golf courses you have to use your imagination to create shots. It presents so many different options.

And he thoroughly enjoyed it, watching me go out there shaping shots and hitting all these weird shots. He always got a big kick out of that.

Q. On the same thing, do you think that need to use imagination to conjure up shots is going to limit the number of potential winners? Do you think it makes your test that much easier?

TIGER WOODS: I think playing an Open Championship you always have to hit different golf shots, because of the golf courses we play. We don't play golf courses like this each and every week. And then we certainly don't ever play a golf course this fast. There's only very few, rare occasions we do. And those times you have to be able to control your golf ball in the air, you have to control your spin.

It's not like you can go out there and hit a marginal shot and expect it to be okay. You come in with a wrong spin in the fairways or even on the greens, you're going to pay a consequence of that.

And...

Q. Can you talk a little bit about the imagination you need to use specifically here at Hoylake? Some of the guys were saying they couldn't keep their balls on the greens on the par 3s on the front.

TIGER WOODS: Yeah, you know, some of them. Yeah, if you get downwind it's really hard to keep it on the green, unless you get a chance into the wind to use the wind as a backboard. But when it gets going downwind and the greens are this firm you have to to a front pin, it's going to be really hard to get it close. A lot of good shots here downwind are going to be 20, 30, 40 feet away and it's going to be a good shot.

That's one of the neat things about playing over here is that the galleries certainly understand that. You hear the types of applause; we play around the world and a lot of times the ball gets airborne there's always applause. Over here if you hit a good shot and they know it and it's 30 feet away, there's a pretty good roar, because that is a good shot. The people are very knowledgeable when we come over here and play an Open Championship.

Ferguson: Blame Tiger and Phil

AP's Doug Ferguson says that Tim Finchem is not entirely to blame for the changes in Chicago and Washington D.C.

Finchem was a convenient target, the czar behind these changes aimed at making the golf season shorter and more interesting.

But it's not all his fault.

If anyone has complaints, look no further than Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson. They were the catalysts who first started barking about the PGA Tour season being too long. All the commissioner did was respond to his two biggest stars.

Tiger: "I watched both days. That was my punishment."

Tiger talking at the tournament soon to not be called the Western:

Q. Did you watch the end of the U.S. Open?

TIGER WOODS: You know, I watched both days. That was my punishment.

Q. Thoughts on Montgomerie and Mickelson?

TIGER WOODS: I thought in my opinion that it was Monty's tournament. In the fairway on 18 with -- not only in the fairway, he was on the right side, on the flat spot with a perfect angle with his fade. It doesn't get any better than that. With Phil on the tee, anything can still happen. He could still make bogey on the last hole and lose the tournament. I thought it was Monty's tournament, put the ball on the green and it's over. Obviously that didn't happen, and then Phil had his mistakes. It was a very interesting finish, one that none of us who are involved in the game of golf probably ever would have predicted we would have seen happening.

Monty's tournament? 

Tiger's U.S. Open Press Conference

Tiger Woods received several spellbinding questions from the packed room of germinalists, including, that' right, a Ben Roethlisberger question.

Thankfully, Brad Klein did get in one golf question:

Q. In terms of course preparation, which holes do you think are likely not to be hitting driver, and what's going to dictate whether hit driver on 6?

TIGER WOODS: Obviously today was dead into the wind, so I can't even come close to getting there dead into the wind. If it's downwind and we get the right pin location, yeah, I'd probably go for it. But there are a lot of holes where I'm hitting 3 wood because of the doglegs. I run out of room hitting a driver and I have to shape it around the corner, which really makes no sense because the fairways get so narrow. So I'll probably hit about four or five 3 woods out there. 6 could be a 4 iron, 3 iron or driver.

"We see a major as a brand moment"

Richard Sandomir in the New York Times writes about a new Nike ad remembering Earl Woods that will debut this week:

Nike naturally looks to create interest around Woods, especially around the time of golf's four major tournaments. "We see a major as a brand moment," said Adam Roth, Nike's United States advertising director.

With Today's Equipment...

Reader Chris correctly surmised that I do not subscribe to Tiger Woods's email newsletter, and shared this little nugget from the current edition:

And no, I won't carry two drivers. I can shape my driver both ways, so I don't need to carry two, although I can understand where Phil Mickelson is coming from. With today's equipment, the ball goes straighter and it's hard to move it from right to left...

Tiger's Distance Secret

Thanks to reader George for ruining the excitement of receiving my July Golf Digest by revealing the very first thing I read in non-Buddies Issue months: Tiger Tips!

Apparently July's Tiger Tip goes something like this, and it really, really puts a crimp in the argument wheeled out by writers, announcers and manufacturers: 

Tiger Tips: How I got my power advantage back

A couple of years ago I didn't need stats to confirm a disturbing new reality for me: Guys were blowing it by me off the tee. Power can be a huge advantage on tour, but mine appeared to be static.

Nothing gives me more satisfaction than bombing a drive, especially when it's shaped the way I pictured it. I felt to regain my edge and keep up with the young guys, I had to find more yards in the same place they did: equipment. By switching to a lighter and longer shaft (45 inches instead of 43 ½), a larger driver head (460 cubic centimeters) and a new ball, I've caught up.

Questions For Tiger, First Tee Edition

Thanks to reader Steven T. for this Harry King column about questions that kids submitted to earn their way to the Tiger Woods at his First Tee outting held yesterday in Arkansas. If only golf's inkslingers could think of questions like this...

The clinic begins at 7:30 a.m., and not one of the winners from Fort Smith said a discouraging word about getting up in time to leave town at 5 a.m. , in one of two vehicles.

They wanted to know if there was a dress code; whether shorts were acceptable. They asked how to address Woods - Tiger or Mr. Woods? Can they approach him or will he come to them? How about autographs? All were nervous questions from kids who want to do what is right.

Woods probably won't take questions from the youngsters and that could be in self-defense. Those making the trip from Fort Smith won their way to Little Rock with letters about what they would ask Woods, and there is a 12-year-old Bob Costas-Barbara Walters in waiting in Van Buren.

His name is Denver Horton and his letter reveals some research, plus a knack for thoughtful questions, and an interview-ending kicker.

He wanted to know how Woods feels about changing the future of golf for kids and how he finds the inner strength to compete when playing poorly.

Familiar with Woods' Learning Center for Children in Anaheim, Calif., Horton asked why changing the lives of children was so important to Woods. The world's best golfer donated the first $5 million for the center, which prompted Horton to say, "That was a lot of money just to give away."

After setting up Woods, Horton went for the kill.

"One more thing, how does your mom feel about you cussing not only on the golf course but on national TV. Be glad your mom is not my mom you would be grounded for a long time. The closest I would get to a golf course would be pulling weeds or planting bushes ... all day if I was ever caught cussing on this golf course."

Travis Jumper, 15, of Fort Smith, had a series of questions for Woods, including some about ethics and etiquette.

"How hard is it to be honest to the companies that want to endorse you but you disagree with the company's values or their product? Is it hard to say no to them paying you millions of dollars just because you don't believe in the product?

You go Travis!

Weinman on Tiger, Phil Sightings at Winged Foot

Sam Weinman offers all sorts of fun anecdotes about the practice rounds played by Woods and Mickelson at Winged Foot.