Another Significant PGA Tour Distance Spike On The Way?

Mike Stachura says the early driving distance average is up three yards over last year's pace at this point.

Through the Honda, the driving distance average is about three yards ahead of last year's pace. (288.5 for 2012, 285.8 for 2011).

One area of statistics that might offer an explanation: launch conditions. The PGA Tour has been cataloging Trackman launch monitor data among the statistics it supplies to players and the media since 2007. A quick look at those numbers show PGA Tour players are launching it higher with less spin and an extra mile per hour of ballspeed this year compared to 2007. Admittedly, the results are limited to just this year's 10 events, but still it makes you wonder.

Comments

[Ryan]

Not completely sure about that, but isn't this year significantly dryer than last year? That might explain a few yards

[Hawkeye]

I seem to recall that the distances at Kapalua were substantially below average last year, and that might have something to do with it.

[Adam Clayman]

Apparently, they went to only measuring the Am's drives, in the pro-ams. 288 indeed.

[Milton]

Rocketballz

[LeeWatson]

How much of this can we attribute to equiptment and how much can we credit to the actual working out of players now?

[Pete the Luddite]

I don't think you can generate substantive conclusions from such a limited data set. Ryan and Hawkeye make good points about possible effects on the results so far. Ultimately, I don't think it's time to head to the watchtower or get out the soapbox yet over a 1% difference from last year's partial data.

That said, there is and has been a distance problem, and it is unfortunate that the Powers-That-Be (c) continue to keep their heads in the sand. As a former researcher, I would have been called to task a long time ago if I continued to say that my study was ongoing and never showed any results along the way to indicate the direction of the project. It's very frustrating to hear that the distance issue is still under study.

Geoff, other insiders--> Any realistic idea on when/if we'll ever see some throughput on this issue from the Tour or R/A?

[Kenny V]

@Lee, None, it's the equipment.

[otey]

How much is it just better machines for calibrating maximal lofts, lies and shafts?

[Matt]

Funny how people keep saying "we need more data!" when there will never be enough data for them. People - Observe the issue and take action; the issue is that the ball goes too far and equipment needs to be rolled back.

[Press Agent]

Nothing scientific, but I was astounded by how far the drives and three woods were going at the Match Play in the desert.

[No Longer Used to be Former S & T Convert]

Could it have something to do with ze rockets they are putting in ze ballz.

[Pete the Luddite]

@Matt-> Exactly. There has been enough time to gather enough data. There are simple approaches for evaluating the ball, the driver, and other clubs, singly and in countless combinations. I could have developed several graduate projects around this topic alone. All you need is a consistent robo-swinger and a good launch monitor. Easy to compare and contrast in lab conditions.

[John R]

I get a kick out of the Taylormade made ads touting the increased distance pros get from the new driver. Justin Rose and Dustin Johnson get 23 and 15 more yards (not that I believe that) and short hitting Justin Leonard gets 9 extra. Just like the golf ball, the longer players get incrementally more improvement. So we distance challenged recreational players probably get no additional yards making the sales pitch useless.

[LeeWatson]

@ Kenny V, I love the trolling. The inaccuracy of the statement alone makes my morning. Thanks kind Sir.

[GolfFan]

Did someone say the sky is falling?

[matt]

@ LeeWatson: How is the statement inaccurate?

Snead, Hogan, Nicklaus, Palmer where are all mashers and in spectacular physical shape (Snead the best of them). Their average drives were in the 260-270 range.

I'll say it again - Take the longest pro today, give him a steel-shafted persimmon driver, balata ball and any course and he will not get the ball out as far as with his 'modern' equipment. I bet over a series of courses his average is 260-270.

[Dr. Dimple]

Even thought it's "only" 10 tournaments, that's still a very robust sample of measured drives. If drives are measured on just 2 holes (the old methodology for measuring driving distance on the PGA Tour) each of the 4 rounds, and assuming there are 156 players in the first two rounds and 70 in the 3rd and 4th rounds (I realize Kapalua has more like 30 players and the Match Play has 64 to start), there are around 9,000 measured drives, more than enough to measure at a statistically significant level. without knowing the standard deviation of those tee shots, it's hard to say, but even if the SD was 80 (which is probably several times higher than it actually is), the averages of 288.5 and 285.8 are statistically different.

(10 tournaments x 2 rounds x 156 players x 2 measured drives) + (10 tournaments x 2 rounds x 70 players x 2 measured drives) = 9,040 measured drives

However, we can't control for the other variables (air temp, humidity, how the fairways were cut, wind, etc.) so we can't say WHAT caused the difference, only that there IS a difference.

[otey]

Is the data skewed by Kapalua and the altitude at the match play event?

[Dr. Dimple]

otey,

No, because they played at Kapalua and Arizona last year.

[Hawkeye]

@otey & Dr. Dimple: I believe the Match Play isn't even included in the stats. Kapalua had different winds last year, meaning less 400-yard drives downwind on the downhill holes. On a side note, I'm more aghast at the 235-yard 5-irons we're seeing. And I used to believe the problem was the 460 CC drivers.

[LeeWatson]

@Matt, I stopped reading after you wrote Nicklaus was in spectacular physical shape. Sorry.

[Kenny V]

@Matt, thanks for the affirmation and backup.
@Lee, I think what Matt meant was Jack was "STRONG", would you argue with that? If so then nothing will sway your way of thinking. At least you enjoyed your morning.

[Kenny V]

@Lee, why do you question physical shape in every thread? What about Gil Hanse, is he in good enough shape to design the Olympic course?

[Pete the Luddite]

@Dr. Dimple-> you make good points about the amount of data available. My thoughts were based on a broader season-long picture, which would likely dilute the effects of turf type played on the California swing vs. the Southern swing and the remainder of events over the year. Then, you have fun components to consider like soil moisture, turf maintenance/agronomy (hard vs. soft conditions), and the like. I dig your viewpoint, that's for sure.

This kind of talk excites me (sad, huh :) ). Makes me long to return to academia and run some statistical and field studies on equipment, agronomy, etc. For example, what distances differences would you see using the same clubs, balls, and roboswing (to give consistent power and launch conditions) for different turf and moisture conditions (hard vs. soft maintained fairways)? How much roll do you really get once you remove the player-specific variables from the equation?

Anyone want to co-author a grant on this one? :)

[Pete the Luddite]

...application, I meant grant *application*... :)

[Hawkeye]

@otey, I missed your first post, but like you say "optimizing" has a lot to do with it. I was a pretty long hitter as a youngster in the early 90´s, and back then we used to believe that the ideal ball flight was one that started low, then gradually rose and got a lot of air time - we actually used stopwatches to clock the air time when comparing drivers. Now we know that the ideal is the exact opposite - a high launch with less spin, and they've got all the technical tools necessary to dial in the exact specifics.

[fourputter]

Only as an observation, and not contributing to the arguments in any way, McIlroy hit what I think was the most perfectly struck golf shot I've ever seen, with a 3-wood off the (I believe) 17th tee in the WGC Matchplay. It flew over 300 yards with no great elevation and rolled (if the commentators were correct) to between 345 - 350 yards. I just can't believe that any tour player could have hit a persimmon wood and the golf ball of 20 years ago that far. Hole was flat, but thin desert air at elevation, of course.

[Del The Funk]

Has there been some sort of material in launch monitor technology? I am skeptical of the distance gains TM is claiming with their staff players...

[Ky Laffoon's Ghost]

Would love to Pete, but my recent success with grant writing puts me in Bob Uecker batting average territory. I'm grant poison. Alas.

[johnnnycz]

Matt,PTL, and all:

The distance dilemma has been around since the days of the featherie and haskel balls....nothing new here. Problem is that we are running out room and money to continue on this path.

Proof: Why did Augusta keep on making the fence at the end of the driving range higher and higher and higher (remember they added like 50meters when Daly qualified in for the 1992 event).

The evidence has always been plain for all to see (providing they take the blinders off)....I'm seeing some of my skinny, computer geek juniors hit 190 yard 7-irons...longer than I ever thought was possible with balata/wound balls. Also, to give a pro the same size sweetspot as an amateur is kinda odd to me. All it would take is a local rule and some balls (the dangly ones) by the PGA Tour...but that ain't happening anytime soon.

Also...don't neglect the mower and better greenskeeping practices developed in the past years...they make a HUGE difference.

I also like how the author of the GD article (Stachura?) doesn't take a stand on anything....despite that the R&A and USGA came to an agreement on the ODS back in 2002 or 2003...and yet they've sat back and done nothing despite all the evidence.

[Erik J. Barzeski]

Median driving distance in 2003? 286.6
Median driving distance so far in 2012? 288.5

Not a significant change.

[Matt]

The problem with numbers is that everyone has their own data that they want to use. the numbers you give are not for the same golfers so it isn't as valid as taking the numbers from the same players.

In any case The trend on tour is that the ball is going too far if you can't see that then no one can help you see it.