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« Huggan: Americans Must Apologize To Sergio! | Main | This Week In Golf Channel Ratings: TOC Monday, Sony Sunday »
Thursday
Jan162014

Tiger's Peers On How Many More Majors He Will Win...

Pete Madden with the highlights from SI Golf Plus' annual anonymous poll of PGA Tour players, including this about Tiger Woods' quest to win more major championships than Jack Nicklaus.

From golf.com:

How many more majors will Tiger win?


ZERO: 6 percent

ONE: 2 percent

TWO: 28 percent

THREE: 18 percent

FOUR: 20 percent
FIVE OR MORE: 26 percent

Woods, 38, has not won a major championship since his dramatic playoff-victory over Rocco Mediate in the 2008 U.S. Open.

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Reader Comments (41)

Tom Gillis voted funniest guy on TOUR...yup, sounds about right. The guy's a pistol!

Mr Crane's short-bus riding/helmet-wearing persona obviously didn't impress his peers...who would've known that?
01.17.2014 | Unregistered Commenterjohnnnycz
Not only did Tigers private life collapse a few years ago but so did his game - he has his demons which seem to be doing battle with his mind, thus his questionable performance. Then, his game pre being found out by his wife was erratic with his mood swings, swearing, throwing clubs and showing little respect for course etiquette was heading for a melt down.

Will he fully recover - that's down to Tiger and just how hungry he is to win again, however I would not write him off, yet on the other hand I do not see him as driven as in his younger years, so he may win, but I fear not as before, nevertheless golfs final frontier is in the mind so who knows what he can achieve if motivated.
01.17.2014 | Unregistered CommenterOld Tom
I could see two, but five? At age 38? He's going to need some luck. Maybe a Sunday collapse or two by another competitor. It's a shame Greg Norman's no longer around.
01.17.2014 | Unregistered Commenterhighside
Looks like 64% of players have no clue what it takes to win a major now. A little more than a good Friday, guys.

Anyone thinking Tiger is going to win 3 or more majors going forward is dreaming.
01.17.2014 | Unregistered CommenterPicky Man
I'm not sure his age comes into it at the moment, he's from a generation of player that is committed to fitness as part of the game and he can certainly go on to his mid 40s with the same performance levels of a younger player, barring major injuries. I think this year will be demonstrative of his capabilities, given the performance last year. No major this year and his self belief probably won't be good enough to win them regularly again.
01.17.2014 | Unregistered CommenterChris Campbell
Put me with the 6% guys.
01.17.2014 | Unregistered CommenterMatthewM
Chris Campbell: "...he can certainly go on to his mid 40s with the same performance levels of a younger player, barring major injuries."

No he can't. He's playing on one knee. The major injuries to which you refer are in the rearview mirror and will limit his ability until he retires. He's an old 38, and he'll be an even older 40-year old. Vijay Singh, he is not.

He hasn't won a major going on 6 years. Not winning one THIS YEAR will crater his confidence? Why this year? Why not last year, or the year before? Why not next year?

Respectfully, Chris, there are not many more straws left to grab. Time isn't running out, it's sliding through the glass at warp speed.
01.17.2014 | Unregistered CommenterPicky Man
Rest of the poll is more interesting.
01.17.2014 | Unregistered CommenterNo Longer
+1 no longer
01.17.2014 | Unregistered CommenterPat
Correct link for the article is:

http://scorecard.golf.com/2014/01/15/majority-of-anonymous-tour-pros-surveyed-say-tiger-wont-break-jacks-major-record/

Looks like the majority of pros (66%) believe he will come close to 18 majors and win 2 to 4 more while a minority believe he will break the major record. The next 3-4 years should be fun to watch.
01.17.2014 | Unregistered CommenterStephenP
That'll leave a mark...
01.17.2014 | Unregistered CommenterDTF
I'm surprised Damon Green wasn't mentioned in the caddie poll.
01.17.2014 | Unregistered CommenterDTF
@Pickyman. Just a guess here, but I'm pretty sure those 64% may have more of an idea on how to win majors than you do. Of course I may be wrong and you may be a "player". If you are, it seems that you are in the minority. Just by the way - every professional over the age of 30 are carrying injuries. Most under 30 are too. Perhaps he should start lifting his left heel?
01.17.2014 | Unregistered Commentermetro18
Tiger and his 'hate list' cast a long shadow, and even in a supposed anonymous poll players are afraid to speak the truth for fear of it getting out how they voted. That and not wanting to 'poke' the tiger for fear that the old man may have a bit left in the tank, but most of them probably 'really' think he'll be lucky to get one more.
01.17.2014 | Unregistered CommenterPress Agent
I'll go with one. It would be zero, but I think he has another Masters in him. Too bad, actually. All that talent on such bad knees and a coaching carousel.
01.17.2014 | Unregistered CommenterThe O
Woods threw away his catching and passing 18 major count opportunitiey a long time ago, when Woods gigantic ego got in the way and took over and he dumped Harmon as coach.
01.17.2014 | Unregistered Commentercsg
How many poles will he, and when?.....wha.?...

Oh, POLLS.

How many, it would be nice if he makes a run at the 18/19, but I don't see it happening, unless e gets in a really special zone for a couple of years. Then he could go alll the way.


With that said, I think he might win 1 more.
01.17.2014 | Unregistered Commenterdigsouth
After studying Tiger for 2-days up close and personal in 2005 at the JP McManus Classic in Ireland, I wrote in my book, The Doonbeg Ghosts (published in 2006) that Tiger would win 16 majors - two short of Nicklaus. The reasons I gave were very much tongue in cheek but much closer to the mark than anybody, including me, could have imagined. Today, I am not so sure that Tiger can reach 16. I will be astonished if he gets to 19.
01.17.2014 | Unregistered CommenterIvan Morris
The Speculation Brothers (Rank and Idle) aren't as knowledgeable as the pros that were surveyed. I don't have any insight into whether or why they would lie, so I would interpret the answers as indicating there is still "major victory fuel" in Tiger's tank. I just don't understand how anybody could honestly believe that he won't win another. That's a losing proposition it seems to me.
01.17.2014 | Unregistered Commentertlavin
His fellow pros know how good he is and these votes reflect that. He's still better than them. Difference is he's not better than he was. The real issue is that the putts haven't fallen for him at the majors since 2008. That decline began with Yang. I used to think he'd win 25. Not anymore.
01.17.2014 | Unregistered CommenterAK47
Terry,

I agree it seems crazy to say he won't win another, but it seems a little less crazy with each passing year.

I think two seems like a good guess, but I have no more knowledge or insight than anyone else, of course.

What will be interesting is to see how long he chases. I wonder what his playing schedule will be like in 7 or so years. He may be considerably hobbled at that time, despite his fitness level.
01.17.2014 | Unregistered CommenterTighthead
metro18, what to say to someone as small-minded as yourself? You don't have to be Celine Dion to judge singing, and you don't need majors to judge someone's chances.

No majors the last six years. That's a trend. A long one.

So, sorry, but your analogy is just silly.
01.17.2014 | Unregistered CommenterPicky Man
For everyone that keeps mentioning his 6 year drought, people forget, Jack also went 6 years between Majors, and twice had a 3 year spell, it happens to the best of them, anyone thinking Tiger won't win a major again, or more are fooling themselves.
01.17.2014 | Unregistered CommenterSteven
65 of 423 majors ever played have been won by golfers 38 or older.

That is 15.4%

Tiger has won 14 majors. If he has won 85% of all he will win in the end, then he has 2.5 majors ahead of him. Since they don't award half majors, this is rounded down to 2.

The distribution of majors won at a specific age produces a normalized distribution. This shows how powerful age is in terms of current and future probability.

Statistically, he should win one more before 40 and one after. But that is it. More than that would require good luck which can't be modeled. Less than two more would be either bad luck or Tiger getting in the way of himself mentally.
01.17.2014 | Unregistered CommenterAbu Dhabi Golfer
Abu Dhabi Golfer, please don't confuse the issue with actual statistics. This matter is settled, apparently, by the question of "Are you a Tiger lover or hater?" You have to pick one. Or, your answer to "Will Tiger pass Jack?" will directly reflect on whether you hate or love Tiger.

Not if you have two independent brain cells to rub together and make an argument.

Shame on you.
01.17.2014 | Unregistered CommenterPicky Man
Once again, I find myself agreeing with ABD golfer; could this be the beginning of a trend? :) I reiterate my view that he wins 2 more.
01.17.2014 | Unregistered CommenterSari
Clearly what the golf world needs is more "will Tiger break Jack's record?" polls and articles.
01.17.2014 | Unregistered Commentermediaguru
I keep reading comparisons to Jack Nicklaus, as if whatever he did is now a given when you turn it around on Tiger. Where did this rule come from? I didn't get the memo. JN went through majors droughts, he also had little motivation to win more after passing Jones. He said himself he'd likely have won more with something to chase.

Tiger's chasing, been chasing since the day he turned pro, and his winning percentages drop every year, they aren't going up. He's not going to win 3 in a season, likely not even two, but he'll have his chance to grab a couple here and there.

Anyone basing their count and prediction comparing his future potential to his torrid pace from years ago just isn't being logical.
01.17.2014 | Unregistered CommenterGuest
Yep, Tiger's done. Stick a fork in him. By the way, who was the number one player in the world 14 years ago? Ok, who's the number one player in the world TODAY? Okayyy, so who were those anonymous guys again? Exactly, it all means nothing. I say he wins it all and leaves all of you with ulcers.
01.17.2014 | Unregistered CommenterEnigma
He cheated on his wife. If you cheat on her you'll cheat on the course. He has demons. He can't putt. He can't play on the weekend. He is washed up.

He won five events, was POY and won more money than anyone else and has spent more time at #1 than the next twenty players combined (okay I guessed).

Pick your narrative. Facts or derision-based blind logic.
01.17.2014 | Unregistered Commentertlavin
"Statistically, he should win one more before 40 and one after. But that is it."

This is an about face for you isn't it?

"If you cheat on her you'll cheat on the course."

tlavin, based on that principle, over the last decade what % of PGA Tour players do you believe have cheated on the course?
01.17.2014 | Unregistered CommenterDTF
Del,

That ain't my principle.
01.17.2014 | Unregistered Commentertlavin
must be a lot of golf cheatin' going on by Tlavins comment
01.17.2014 | Unregistered CommenterTough
tlavin, could have sworn you wrote that?

Tough, if true probably more players cheating than aren't...
01.17.2014 | Unregistered CommenterDTF
tlavin, my apologies...

...I misread your post. Again, sorry about that.
01.17.2014 | Unregistered CommenterDTF
Tongue in cheek
01.17.2014 | Unregistered CommenterEnigma
Picky - you incorrectly have me down as a Tiger apologist. I'm not, in fact I prefer when he's playing badly as I don't have to watch 5 hours of Tiger Tour coverage.

My point was that if he doesn't win one this year, that would be somewhat of a disappointment to him in that we would have failed to build on his 5 wins last year. That's quite some baggage to be carrying around.
01.18.2014 | Unregistered CommenterChris Campbell
Yes, Jack had a 6-year Major drought, from 40 to 46. Which is kind of the point. If Tiger channels his former self on the greens he will win again when it really counts, for him. If he continues to occasionally miss the hole completely from 6 feet, he won't. Simple as that.
01.18.2014 | Unregistered CommenterKLG
He'll surprise us all by giving two back because he admitted he cheated? <sarcasm, people, sarcasm>
01.18.2014 | Unregistered CommenterBillV
These guys should hope and pray he doesn't win one. Once he wins that first one, watch out... he may win 10. He's still the best player on the planet by miles when mentally clear. That said, he may not win another.
01.18.2014 | Unregistered CommenterJRP

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