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« 0.6: U.S. Women's Open Final Round Overnight Lowest Since '96 | Main | Video: New And Incredible #ArnieWould Ad For The Open »
Monday
Jul172017

Handicapping The 2017 Open Championship!

Oddschecker is sensational for up-to-the-minute (literally) prices.Full disclosure: I've placed each-way bets on Rickie Fowler (18-1), Alexander Levy (250-1) and intend to add Wesley Bryan at 300-1.

My ten players to watch at Golfweek.com. Note: this was filed before Rory posted another missed cut at the Scottish and Stenson, the defending champion, all but declared his chances are slim.

The Golfweek staff makes fantasy picks including for those in various formats.

Wednesday's weather is bleak, so look for a softer course Thursday. The Met Office expects pretty steady winds all day Thursday and the same for Friday's play.

On the upcoming ShackHouse, we will be discussing the course and who it favors, plus working through some prop bets for those attempting to handicap a very wide open Open.

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Reader Comments (20)

Bello (60), Schauffele (175).
07.17.2017 | Unregistered CommenterFC
what style & method of putter did Bryson use yesterday?
07.17.2017 | Unregistered CommenterStreaky Putter
Bryan and Bello I like a lot also. What about Mickelson at 40? He didn't win, but he crushed the field last year and isn't playing badly. And one I'm not too sure about, but how about Wiesberger?
07.17.2017 | Unregistered CommenterWEG
Brysin used a long putter firmly anchored to his left forearm. The putter was basically an extension of the forearm. No problems with legality because, as with the Kuchar method, the club is not being rotated around a stationary anchored point.
07.17.2017 | Unregistered Commenter3foot1
3foot1: the Kuchar method is legal only because the USGA higher ups view him as the type of polite, clean cut, young man they'd have been happy to paddle down at the Omega Theta Pi house back in the 1950s, when they were attending college. The long-putter ban was always about appearance and the fact that users were an extreme minority group, not anything substantive. "Anchoring point" doesn't, and never has, mattered in the grand scheme of things.
07.17.2017 | Unregistered CommenterDrBunsenHoneydew
The thing about the Open and Majors in general is the books dangle so many ways to bet at you. I probably don't have any better ideas than anybody else about who will win. I'm just going to try and find a way to cash in if guys I like play well.

If you like Fowler to win, for example, you had better like him vs Spieth head up. Or vice versa. Same for Rose vs Sergio and a dozen other matchups.

I don't love Zach Johnsons chances to win on paper, but he could be a right now horse so I don't hate him at 5.20 to beat Kuchar, Reed, Paddy H, and Poulter. I don't know if Fleetwood can win, but at 5.40 he has to beat off form DJ, Rory and Stenson plus time-bomb Rahm.
I hope Rose wins at the place where he came into prominence.

He is a good guy and definitely should have more than one major to his name.
07.17.2017 | Unregistered Commenterfyg
Cut 146
76 players
07.17.2017 | Unregistered CommenterChrisG
It continues to amaze me that for betting purposes and for spectator interest pros don't get a handicap index like us millions of amateurs. When Poulter played at the Open Qualifying at Woburn it would have been helpful in assessing his chance of being in the top 3 there. The handicap system works for most golfers so why not those who do it for money? I suspect that when pro golfers have a head to head bet on a practice round one gives the other shots in some cases.
@Colin -

Good idea ... but a lot of punters I know make their own rating system. The really good ones have it down to a a stroke breakdown (+/-) per hole played.

@Patches -

What a wild group to have Fleetwood in there, lol.
07.18.2017 | Unregistered CommenterConfused
@ Colin - I have no inside knowledge whatsoever of this, but I would be willing to wager that no pro player gives or gets strokes during practice round betting.
07.18.2017 | Unregistered CommenterBrianS
@Colin - I don't know that you could come up with a number that would be meaningful to compare pros to ams. Pro set-ups vs what the average member plays day in and day out are pretty different.

But you could come up with a number that would be meaningful to compare pros to other pros. We know their stroke averages, but we'd have to adjust for the courses. Adam Scott and Tony Finau have almost identical stroke averages. Scott plays a limited schedule of Majors, WGCs, Players, Riviera, Memorial, etc. Finau has some CIMB, Shriners, Mayakoba, etc mixed in there.

I'd guess Scott would have to be adjusted lower. But by how much? I'd do it by making a number out of the aggregate difference in the fields scores vs their scoring averages in a given tournament. There are other ways, but that might also account for playing conditions in a given week.

Call it adjusted scoring average?
@Patches -

Sounds about right ... :) check out swingform
07.18.2017 | Unregistered CommenterConfused
Ha. You saying I reinvented the wheel?

Turns out the PGA Tour already does adjust the scoring averages by a similar method. As an adjustment, Tony Finau has 13 shots added to his aggregate total before dividing by the number of rounds played. Scott has almost 18 shots subtracted from his totals before dividing.
Cut Line at the 2017 Open Championship at Royal Birkdale = Level Par (Even par after 36 holes))

How many players will make the cut? = 80

My pick to be named the Champion Golfer of the Year = Justin Rose -- ! A sensational player who should relish an affectionate return to the site of his great breakthrough as a dazzling amateur.
07.19.2017 | Unregistered CommenterNancy Beach
Cut Line at the 2017 Open Championship at Royal Birkdale = Level Par (Even par after 36 holes)) - 140

How many players will make the cut? = 80

My pick to be named the Champion Golfer of the Year = Justin Rose -- ! A sensational player who should relish an affectionate return to the site of his great breakthrough as a dazzling amateur.

email fine1mouche@gmail.com
07.19.2017 | Unregistered CommenterNancy Beach
Colin - no pro would give another pro shots in casual play. Their egos would prevent it!
07.19.2017 | Unregistered CommenterJonathan
Spieth is the logical choice. Fleetwood, Poulter, Rose and Rahm are all prudent alternatives. I'm guessing we might end up with a shocker like Stricker or a surprise like Oosthuizen or Weisberger.
07.19.2017 | Unregistered Commenter3foot1
Fleetwood my pick, he played Erin Hills great, guy is really good on big stage, does not back down, knows course, he will have to beat Rose, who will be ready for a big win again, he will be right there at the end...
Can't wait for the start! Geoff, how were the fish & chips, the pasty?
07.19.2017 | Unregistered CommenterRoute66
I like Fleetwood, generally, but missing the cut in 6 of 8 majors doesn't equal "really good on the big stage" IMO.
07.19.2017 | Unregistered CommenterCarl Peterson

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